What i learned from the great book thinking in bets

After reading this book I have noted some mental models or techniques that help you in your decision making

Keeping the door ajar (90% certainty of your beliefs).

Leaving some doubt so that the idea or action can be discussed. If we invert this idea, the likelihood that you are 100% correct 100% of the time is 0. It is irrational to belive that you are 100% correct so why are we so certain of all the choices that we make?

Ulysses contract (be proactive)

A Ulysses pact or Ulysses contract is a freely made decision that is designed and intended to bind oneself in the future. … The term refers to the pact that Ulysses (Greek name Ὀδυσσεύς, Odysseus) made with his men as they approached the Sirens – He tied himself to the mast so he could avoid the beautiful song of the sirens.

10 minutes – 10 hours – 10 years (first order/ second order effects)

Put your position out from where you stand and thinking about the impacts or likelihoods then

back casting (beginning with the end in mind)

If we put ourselves in the final position and look back, do you think of how naive we were for the original idea?

pre mortem (ante)

instead of a post mortem – conduct a premorterm to determine what you have and why you have made these decisions. this will allow you to review and adjust your decision making with the benefit of hindsight.

Related books

• thinking win- win. Story about battling with your partners. Losses of serotonin when someone ‘loses’. Change the frame
• Sharpen the saw (cointunous improvement – habits book)