Risk and opportunity

How do we predict the future?

This is always a difficult question to answer because we do not know. The system is a complex with many moving parts, to predict what the combination of all these small actions will result in is too difficult.

What Taleb suggested is predict the future viva negativa, that is, predict what will be gone from the future and go from there.

1. Paper money
2. Banks are zero (defi)
3. Taxi drivers
4. masculinity (reduced)
5. individual cultures (one large monostate connected by the internet)
6. unspoiled wilderness
7. nationalism

But with these vague ideas in mind how do you plan your life around them? The themes which i prescribe strongly to

1. decentralised money
2. work via internet (knowledge economy)
3. less borders

And how do we assign probabilities/likelihoods to these items, because the future is never certain…