Risk and opportunity

How do we predict the future?

This is always a difficult question to answer because we do not know. The system is a complex with many moving parts, to predict what the combination of all these small actions will result in is too difficult.

What Taleb suggested is predict the future viva negativa, that is, predict what will be gone from the future and go from there.

1. Paper money
2. Banks are zero (defi)
3. Taxi drivers
4. masculinity (reduced)
5. individual cultures (one large monostate connected by the internet)
6. unspoiled wilderness
7. nationalism

But with these vague ideas in mind how do you plan your life around them? The themes which i prescribe strongly to

1. decentralised money
2. work via internet (knowledge economy)
3. less borders

And how do we assign probabilities/likelihoods to these items, because the future is never certain…

creating your personal brand

when you meet someone what is your immediate first impression of them? Are they bubbly, smart, warm, friendly, well put together, mature or dour, dismissive, cold…

i think usually we can just be ourselves to the world, however, what you present in your mind may not be what others are experiencing.

We can craft the user experience by having a more systematic way of looking ourselves.

1. Chin up, chest out
2. Always be smiling and positive outlook
3. Assertiveness. Providing ideas without any backpedalling or repition. We are going to do this and then this after…
4. Creating positive vibes with others. The best tactic is to provide positive words and generally flatter the other person. There is no need ot point out flaws or say any bad items. This is the whole concept of negative vibes. It is generally seen that if someone has a good experience with you then they will tend to like you.
5. Craft your signals. We all interpret signals provide additional information on how we should act. eg we have a bad smell and this signals that this food may be off. It is the same with people. Generally unkempt – probably bad night or they’re not in a good place

I hope this post has provided you some prompts for some spare time thinking. I know that this is an item which i have neglected previously and my old photos can generally show what sort of signals i was producing. To follow will be a blog about the items which i look to continually improve.

irrationally optimistic

I was listening to Naval clubhouse and he shared a really important point – that is when we approach things, rather than looking at the negative, we are should be irrational optimistic about the outcome.

Optimism has no cost. The reason for this because it doesn’t cost you anything to be optimistic, and being pessimistic is a self fulfuling prophecy. On our new ventures we can lose everything (5%) but if it suceeds, it can scale to higher highs (1000%). This is assymetric.

Thinking too much about loss. If i look back at my life, I have been to concerned with the downsides and not enough on the downsides. Thinking in terms of -5% vs 50% really changes the equation, rather than -20% and 0%.

Take a step back and make quick decisions. I grappled this week about whether to approach a girl that i liked. I dwelled on the question for hours, soliciting opinions from friends and working up the courage to ask her out. I now realise that i was trying to say the right thing to decrease the changes of rejection. Strike while the iron is hot. Relating back to optimism, there was absolutely no downside and the upside was that i discover a potential lead.

Change of thinking. My attitude previously was to use a i dont give a fuck (IDGAF) strategy. This required me to disengage my brain and pushed me to get to tipsy before i could enact. I think the new strategy of low downside huge upside allows my brain to rationalise my behaviour.

Leave the the thinking to others and take action Be bold and go for what you desire. Based upon my experiences – I have qualities that are attractive. And i am proposing to others whether this matches with them.