This year has been a timultulous year – COVID and then its after effects changing the way we live, work and socialise. In this post i look at what has happened and think of what could happen in the future. as always i will try to look at things via negativa. That is predict the future not with addition, but with subtraction.
Needing to be in the office to work – I think this will continue next year and there will be acceptance for people to work away from home. This will mean less revenue for businesses that depend on office workers and shutter them.
Less human interactions – this is already happening and with the increase of internet. There will be more forum reading, online msging going on in the future. We are already seeing the younger generation are having less sex than ever before.
More time on the internet means the rise of the alternative internet meme generation. Ideas will spread more quickly and people from different parts of the world will become more similar (less diverse).
Less retail – Online shopping is a whole lot easier and hassle free than going to the shopping centre. It is also cheaper for the consumer as the overheads of staff and storefront and removed.
Continual divisions – the algorithms of big tech ensure that you are provided ads, videos and information that align with your beliefs and with which you want to see. These details can only get better with time as more data and improvements are made. Expect a world containing people with extremely different views, using different data sources as their backup.
Currency debasement – I beleive the US increased M2 money supply by 20% this year. With the number of assets remaining the same, that means your money will be worth less. Supposedly the US has dug itself into a hole – and will remaining printing more money in the next few years. Think of an melting icecube, staying in cash (usually a safe choice) is a certain 15% haircut each year. Australia will have to start doing the same unless it wants to have 80c to the dollar and reduce export competitiveness.
Are we witnessing the fourth turning – currency debasement, less loyalty to country, the rise of the soverign individual. The effects of the information age is upon us. Manufacturing is no longer the workhorse that powers the economy – but the exchange of information. We witness the economy function 6+ months with people working from home. Some people were actually more productive!
The only ways this moves is forward. Of course the usual premiums will be needed and can’t be delivered; Walkable green space, services (doctor, gym etc) and socialising spaces if not at home. Therefore these are the items that will still be in demand in the future.
5 Percent a day 